Monsoon likely to be normal in north & south, above-normal in central India: IMD

Monsoon likely to be normal in north & south, above-normal in central India: IMD

Hummingbird News Desk

NEW DELHI, 1 JUNE: The southwest monsoon is likely to be normal in north and south India, above-normal in central India and below-normal in east and northeast India, the MeT department said on Tuesday.

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Releasing its second long range forecast for southwest monsoon 2021, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said June is likely to witness normal monsoon which is also the sowing season.

He said the monsoon this year is likely to be normal in the country as a whole.

“We are expecting a good monsoon which will help the agriculture sector,” Mohapatra said in an online briefing.

“Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus four per cent,” he said.

Rainfall in the range of 96-104 of the LPA is categorised as normal.

The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.

According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):

  • Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA)).
  • Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
  • The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall is most likely to be Normal over Northwest India (92-108%)and South Peninsula (93-107%). Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over North east India (<95%) and above normal over Central India (>106%).
  • The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA).
  • Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially (Fig.1). Most parts of the country is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall during the season.
  • The latest global model forecasts indicate the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.

El Nino, La Nina, positive and negative IOD are believed to have an influence over the Indian monsoon.

El Nino and La Nina are associated with the heating and cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean respectively. Negative and positive IOD are also linked to the heating and cooling of the Indian Ocean waters respectively.

Tags: #IMD #SouthwestMonsoon #Assam, #Meghalaya #Weather #Delhi #monsoon

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