Biswabrata Goswami
MIDNAPORE, 2 OCT: In a groundbreaking research endeavor, a group of dedicated researchers has unveiled a comprehensive flood susceptibility map for the Ghatal region, shedding light on the areas most vulnerable to flooding. Utilizing advanced ensemble machine learning models and incorporating diverse datasets, including historical flood event records, satellite imagery, and rainfall data, the study meticulously analyzed the complexities of flooding in the Shilavati river basin and surrounding Ghatal areas.
The research, conducted over years and culminating in a recently published paper, utilized three powerful machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and Extreme Gradient Boosting Algorithms. These algorithms were instrumental in predicting the causes behind flooding and identifying areas likely to face inundation in the near future. The outcome of this extensive analysis is a flood susceptibility map, categorizing regions into five distinct zones: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High.
Significantly, the high to very high flood susceptibility areas cover a substantial 1510 square kilometers out of the total 4195 square kilometers in the Shilavati river basin. Notable areas such as Ghatal, Chandrakona, and parts of the Salbani block have been identified as falling within this high-risk zone due to factors like low elevation, high drainage density, proximity to the river, and gentle slope.
In response to these findings, the researchers have proposed a master plan for Ghatal, envisioning a future with significantly reduced flood susceptibility. “If implemented, this plan could potentially decrease the duration and frequency of flooding incidents from the current 15 to 30 days to a mere 5 to 7 days. However, the proposal comes with challenges, particularly concerning land use practices in the area”, said Dr Biswajit Bera, assistant professor, Department of Geography, Sidho Kanho Birsha University.
Floods in Ghatal are exacerbated by the convergence of six main tributaries with the Shilavati river, leading to the accumulation of runoff and sediment, resulting in frequent flooding. While flooding traditionally contributes to silt accumulation, which benefits agriculture, the proposed master plan might alter this dynamic. The reduction in flooding intensity could lead to decreased silt accumulation, posing new challenges for the agricultural community, said Md Hasanuzzaman, research scholar, Research Center in Natural and Apllied Science at Raja N L Khan Women’s College.
Dr Pravat Kumar Shit, assistant professor, department of Geography of the Women’s College said, “One of the significant hurdles in implementing the Ghatal master plan lies in altering the current land use practices of the local residents.” He expressed reservations about the feasibility of such changes, considering the deep-rooted nature of existing practices.
Despite these challenges, Dr Aznarul Islam, assistant professor, Department of Geography, Aliah University said, “The unveiling of the flood susceptibility map and the proposal of the master plan mark a significant step toward understanding and mitigating the risks faced by Ghatal and its surrounding regions.” The research opens avenues for further discussions, community engagements, and collaborative efforts to ensure a sustainable future for the flood-prone areas.
Tags: #Ghatal #GhatalMasterPlan #FloodSusceptibilityMap #Researchers
